Horse racing systems range from the complex to the very simple. However most can be divided into those that concentrate on a horses form and those that are based on statistical analysis.
To explain a little further if a system requires you to look and back a horse that has run its last 2 races over the same distance as today's race and came 2nd or 3rd in both then that is a system based on form. If a system requires you to back the top weighted horse in a handicap with more than 10 runners this is based on statistics. These two ideas are just used as examples and not suggested plans.
There are people who favour both options but I think it is fair to say that the majority of gamblers base their decision on horses form. This has not always proved to be the most reliable of methods. When a betting market is formed book makers tend to base their prices on the form that horses have shown. This in theory means that the horse with the best form will be the favourite. I know this is an over simplification but it explains my point.
If form was really a reliable guide then the majority of favourites would win the races. In the UK on average favourites win around 30% of all races and in some types of race the figure can be as low as 20% or in others as high as 50%.
Now hopefully you can see where statistics can come in. These days it is possible to access statistics regarding not only the horses but their trainers and jockeys. A horse that has run 26 times and only won once, with a trainer who has a 10% success rate and a jockey who only wins 5% of the races he rides in may not be a good bet.
The truth of the matter is that both form and statistics have their part to play in making selections. Making your choice using form guides is fine but before you make your bets take a look at the statistics it could make or save you quite a bit of money.
To explain a little further if a system requires you to look and back a horse that has run its last 2 races over the same distance as today's race and came 2nd or 3rd in both then that is a system based on form. If a system requires you to back the top weighted horse in a handicap with more than 10 runners this is based on statistics. These two ideas are just used as examples and not suggested plans.
There are people who favour both options but I think it is fair to say that the majority of gamblers base their decision on horses form. This has not always proved to be the most reliable of methods. When a betting market is formed book makers tend to base their prices on the form that horses have shown. This in theory means that the horse with the best form will be the favourite. I know this is an over simplification but it explains my point.
If form was really a reliable guide then the majority of favourites would win the races. In the UK on average favourites win around 30% of all races and in some types of race the figure can be as low as 20% or in others as high as 50%.
Now hopefully you can see where statistics can come in. These days it is possible to access statistics regarding not only the horses but their trainers and jockeys. A horse that has run 26 times and only won once, with a trainer who has a 10% success rate and a jockey who only wins 5% of the races he rides in may not be a good bet.
The truth of the matter is that both form and statistics have their part to play in making selections. Making your choice using form guides is fine but before you make your bets take a look at the statistics it could make or save you quite a bit of money.
